Home » Public Forums » GMCnet » [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
| [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149547] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 10:08  |
Dolph Santorine
Messages: 1236
Registered: April 2011
Location: Wheeling, WV
Karma: -41
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Senior Member |
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A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
Thanks for the collective wisdom.
Dolph
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149549 is a reply to message #149547] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 10:37  |
k2gkk
Messages: 4452
Registered: November 2009
Karma: -8
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From what I have read, the LOCATION is all important to
the feasibility of wind power. Wind generation seems to
START to be feasible when the wind speed gets to around
12-15 mph at the LOWEST! Average windspeed needs to be
consistent around or above maybe 15-18 mph.
If the wind conditions at the proposed site meet the above
criteria, then it MAY have a chance at commercial success.
The height of just under 200 feet brings the wind up a good
bit from what it might be at ground level.
JUST MY OPINION and worth exactly what you have paid for it!
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~~ ~ D C "Mac" Macdonald ~ ~~
~ ~ Amateur Radio - K2GKK ~ ~
~ ~ USAF and FAA, Retired ~ ~
~ ~ ~ Oklahoma City, OK ~ ~ ~
~~ ~ ~ "The Money Pit" ~ ~ ~~
~ ~ ~ ex-Palm Beach, 76 ~ ~ ~
~ www.gmcmhphotos.com/okclb ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
> From: dolph@dolphsantorine.com
> Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2011 11:08:18 -0500
> To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
> Subject: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
>
> A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
>
> I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
>
> I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
>
> This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
>
> I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
>
> I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
>
> So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
>
> Thanks for the collective wisdom.
>
> Dolph
>
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149551 is a reply to message #149548] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 10:48 |
jayrabe
Messages: 509
Registered: June 2009
Location: Portland, OR
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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There is a yahoo group called "small-wind-home" that you might consider joining and posting your questions to. While the nominal scope of the group is home-installed if not home-built systems, there are a couple of guys on the list with years of experience with all varieties of commercial systems too. They frequently evaluate and comment on new entries to the market, and be warned they are often especially critical of marketing hype for new offerings, since these guys know their theoretical stuff and frequently analyze quoted specs to determine that they exceed the "Betz limit" which is the theoretical maximum amount of energy that can be extracted from a moving air stream. There are no uniformly accepted, ie. industry-wide guidelines for reporting power output from a wind system, so different mfrs report sometimes on average wind speed, sometimes peak, sometimes 10kph, sometimes 13, sometimes they explicitly state their assumptions in their calculated specs, sometimes they d
on't, etc. Confidence in a management team is critical, but I'm sure you'll do your independent homework.
Jay Rabe
76 PB
Portland, OR
> From: mr.erfisher@gmail.com
> Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2011 08:25:58 -0800
> To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
> Subject: Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
>
> Sandia labs studied for 30 years
>
> Nothing-- try to find their data
>
> Gene
>
> FREE WIFI @ Mickey D
>
>
>
>
>
> On Nov 13, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Dolph Santorine <dolph@dolphsantorine.com> wrote:
>
> > A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
> >
> > I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
> >
> > I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
> >
> > This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
> >
> > I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
> >
> > I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
> >
> > So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
> >
> > Thanks for the collective wisdom.
> >
> > Dolph
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > GMCnet mailing list
> > Unsubscribe or Change List Options:
> > http://temp.gmcnet.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/gmclist
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149565 is a reply to message #149547] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 12:30 |
jhbridges
Messages: 8412
Registered: May 2011
Location: Braselton ga
Karma: -74
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Senior Member |
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Siemans just spent a modest fortuna locally to build a plant to manufacture parts for wind turbines - geaerboxes, I believe. I don't think they're a particularly speculative company.
--johnny
'76 23' Transmode Norris
'76 Palm Beach
________________________________
From: Dolph Santorine <dolph@dolphsantorine.com>
To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 11:08 AM
Subject: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
Thanks for the collective wisdom.
Dolph
_______________________________________________
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Unsubscribe or Change List Options:
http://temp.gmcnet.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/gmclist
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Foolish Carriage, 76 26' Eleganza(?) with beaucoup mods and add - ons.
Braselton, Ga.
I forgive them all, save those who hurt the dogs. They must answer to me in hell
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149566 is a reply to message #149549] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 12:36 |
jhbridges
Messages: 8412
Registered: May 2011
Location: Braselton ga
Karma: -74
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Senior Member |
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When we were on the Big Island several years ago, we stopped and gawked at the wind farm there. All automatic, nobody around. Spooky, the control house wasn't locked. You'd hear a couple of relays drop, and one of the turbines would come out of feather and begin to turn. When it got up to speed with the others, you could hear a big contactor drop in, and the gears in the tubine whine as it took load. A guy in a restaurant where we stopped said the oil fired plant on the coast was mostly for peak load and when the wind didn't blow, or more frequently, when it blew too hard.
--johnny
'76 '23' trandmode Norris - gas powered
'76 Palm Beach
________________________________
From: D C *Mac* Macdonald <k2gkk@hotmail.com>
To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 11:37 AM
Subject: Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
From what I have read, the LOCATION is all important to
the feasibility of wind power. Wind generation seems to
START to be feasible when the wind speed gets to around
12-15 mph at the LOWEST! Average windspeed needs to be
consistent around or above maybe 15-18 mph.
If the wind conditions at the proposed site meet the above
criteria, then it MAY have a chance at commercial success.
The height of just under 200 feet brings the wind up a good
bit from what it might be at ground level.
JUST MY OPINION and worth exactly what you have paid for it!
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~~ ~ D C "Mac" Macdonald ~ ~~
~ ~ Amateur Radio - K2GKK ~ ~
~ ~ USAF and FAA, Retired ~ ~
~ ~ ~ Oklahoma City, OK ~ ~ ~
~~ ~ ~ "The Money Pit" ~ ~ ~~
~ ~ ~ ex-Palm Beach, 76 ~ ~ ~
~ www.gmcmhphotos.com/okclb ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
> From: dolph@dolphsantorine.com
> Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2011 11:08:18 -0500
> To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
> Subject: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
>
> A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
>
> I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
>
> I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
>
> This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
>
> I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
>
> I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
>
> So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
>
> Thanks for the collective wisdom.
>
> Dolph
>
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http://temp.gmcnet.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/gmclist
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Foolish Carriage, 76 26' Eleganza(?) with beaucoup mods and add - ons.
Braselton, Ga.
I forgive them all, save those who hurt the dogs. They must answer to me in hell
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149574 is a reply to message #149547] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 14:44 |
Craig Lechowicz
Messages: 541
Registered: October 2006
Location: Waterford, MI
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
|
|
After being broomed from the auto industry, I looked pretty hard at getting into the wind business. To me it's a fun and intriguing business, but not a particularly easy industry to get into, especially if you don't want to move to Iowa. Mac is absolutely right, average wind speed means everything to the success of the project. Basically, if you can't get over at least 11 mph, it's really tough to make the economics work. And, then it only works if you qualify for some generous state, national, and sometimes power company incentives and tax credits. Depending on which way the '12 elections go the support for or against these incentives could change drastically, as a number are set to expire. There is a ton of information on the <awea.org> website, more than you'll ever want to know. (American Wind Energy Association - the lobbying arm for the industry).
My state (Michigan) also has a lot of information available through their department of economic development. It includes some "high level" maps of average windspeeds by county. They run a monthly Wind Working group meeting for interested parties that is open to the public, and the guy from the state that runs it pretty much knows everyone working in the industry in our state. If they have something equivalent in your area, it would be worth talking to someone at that level, although they have to maintain some independence from commenting on specific projects or companies. They would probably have an idea of whether your project makes any sense or not, though. The wind maps are done by a company called <awstruepower.com> I couldn't find any overview maps on their site, but I didn't spend a lot of time looking.
Ultimately, if the project takes bank financing, before someone will loan money, they will probably want to see data from an on-site meterological tower, over a period of a year or more, (which is expensive) or have such a good working relationship with the company doing the development that they trust the companies assessment of the resource. (Not a lot of trusting bankers out there these days though . . .) As someone else mentioned, a small variance in siting of the turbine can make a big difference in production, as wind is extremely local.
I can offer some more generalities if you'd like to PM me, but it's a hugely complex business (part of the appeal for me coming out of autos), with a giant political/regulatory element, and complex financial issues, so all the gory details count a lot.
Craig Lechowicz
'77 Kingsley, Waterford, MI
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149578 is a reply to message #149574] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 17:07 |
emerystora
Messages: 4442
Registered: January 2004
Karma: 13
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Senior Member |
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Hi Craig
It was interesting to hear of your involvement in the wind industry.
My last job (before buying my own businesses) was working for an
investment banking firm in San Francisco (I left in 1993 so this is
old information but really hasn't changed much).
In that position i was in charge of managing the department that put
together the financing packages for power projects which included gas
cogeneration, hydroelectric, geothermal, garbage burning, peat moss.
Industrial and agricultural wastes, photovoltaic, solar and wind.
About the only type of project that I did not have involvement with
the financing at one time or the other over the years was nuclear
(unless one counts my time as head of Project Finance for Dow Chemical
when we were trying to work with Consumers Power on the long ago dead
proposed nuclear plant in Midland Mi.)
Of all these projects my opinion is that wind was the hardest to do.
In fact, without large government subsidies it would be almost
impossible to finance them.
Some of the subsidies have gone away so it would likely be even harder
to do today.
I have never seen a wind project that would stand on it's own. The
relatively high equipment cost could just not be offset by the free
wind. Without government regulations that forced utilities to purchase
wind project electrical output at their highest avoided cost there was
not enough revenue to turn a profit.
Power companies fought this and were not happy when it would be forced
on them.
Emery Stora
On Nov 13, 2011, at 1:44 PM, Craig Lechowicz <craig.lechowicz@sbcglobal.net
> wrote:
>
>
> After being broomed from the auto industry, I looked pretty hard at
> getting into the wind business. To me it's a fun and intriguing
> business, but not a particularly easy industry to get into,
> especially if you don't want to move to Iowa. Mac is absolutely
> right, average wind speed means everything to the success of the
> project. Basically, if you can't get over at least 11 mph, it's
> really tough to make the economics work. And, then it only works if
> you qualify for some generous state, national, and sometimes power
> company incentives and tax credits. Depending on which way the '12
> elections go the support for or against these incentives could
> change drastically, as a number are set to expire. There is a ton of
> information on the <awea.org> website, more than you'll ever want to
> know. (American Wind Energy Association - the lobbying arm for the
> industry).
>
> My state (Michigan) also has a lot of information available through
> their department of economic development. It includes some "high
> level" maps of average windspeeds by county. They run a monthly
> Wind Working group meeting for interested parties that is open to
> the public, and the guy from the state that runs it pretty much
> knows everyone working in the industry in our state. If they have
> something equivalent in your area, it would be worth talking to
> someone at that level, although they have to maintain some
> independence from commenting on specific projects or companies.
> They would probably have an idea of whether your project makes any
> sense or not, though. The wind maps are done by a company called <awstruepower.com
> > I couldn't find any overview maps on their site, but I didn't
> spend a lot of time looking.
>
> Ultimately, if the project takes bank financing, before someone will
> loan money, they will probably want to see data from an on-site
> meterological tower, over a period of a year or more, (which is
> expensive) or have such a good working relationship with the company
> doing the development that they trust the companies assessment of
> the resource. (Not a lot of trusting bankers out there these days
> though . . .) As someone else mentioned, a small variance in siting
> of the turbine can make a big difference in production, as wind is
> extremely local.
>
> I can offer some more generalities if you'd like to PM me, but it's
> a hugely complex business (part of the appeal for me coming out of
> autos), with a giant political/regulatory element, and complex
> financial issues, so all the gory details count a lot.
> --
> Craig Lechowicz
> '77 Kingsley, Waterford, MI
> _______________________________________________
> GMCnet mailing list
> Unsubscribe or Change List Options:
> http://temp.gmcnet.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/gmclist
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149583 is a reply to message #149547] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 19:58 |
Craig Lechowicz
Messages: 541
Registered: October 2006
Location: Waterford, MI
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Emery,
Thanks, all good comments on your part, and you're right, it doesn't sound like much has changed, except it's maybe even more political now. I didn't know you had that involvement either, along with all your Dow experience. A good (and unfortunately now late) friend of mine did some of the instrumentation work for Dow when they were working to convert the nuclear plant to a Co-gen natural gas one.
The big wind subsidy up for debate right now, is something called a PTC (production tax credit) which essentially pays wind companies to make electric power that is often more expensive than existing capacity. Many states, including mine, also have RES (renewable energy standards) which just requires electric companies to use wind, solar, bio and such for a percentage of their power. And at the levels they are set at, wind is about the only thing that scales enough to make a difference. This is why some companies are either willing or required to buy wind power from independents. A former co-worker of mine runs renewable energy for DTE (formerly Detroit Edison) and she says, we wouldn't mind it so much if they hadn't lost so much demand that they don't need any more base capacity for 20 years or more.
I mostly researched it from a career change standpoint, but started to lose interest when I found out most of the people making money there were lawyers or financiers. (Nothing wrong with either of those, just not what I do.) Then, around the end of '09 my Dow friend died unexpectedly of pancreatic cancer, and I decided I needed more time a lot worse than I needed more money.
Maybe we can go on an impromptu windmill tour at Amana colonies next year and compare notes with drinks afterwards. There's bound to be some nearby. The newest utility ones are amazing, at 3 megawatts apiece, closing in on 300' diameter blades, and 200' + tower heights. Power goes up with the 3rd power of diameter, so there is huge pressure to go big.
Craig Lechowicz
'77 Kingsley, Waterford, MI
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149585 is a reply to message #149583] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 20:03 |
Dolph Santorine
Messages: 1236
Registered: April 2011
Location: Wheeling, WV
Karma: -41
|
Senior Member |
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Thank you all for your input.
Lots of good, unconventional "rocks" to turn over.
I'll let you know what I do with it, and at some point, I'll pass the company name along.
Peace.
Dolph Santorine
DE N8JPC
Wheeling, West Virginia
dolph@dolphsantorine.com
1977 GMC 26' Palm Beach
TZE167V100820
1976 GMC 26' Donor Coach
TZE166V101610
On Nov 13, 2011, at 8:59 PM, Craig Lechowicz wrote:
>
>
> Emery,
> Thanks, all good comments on your part, and you're right, it doesn't sound like much has changed, except it's maybe even more political now. I didn't know you had that involvement either, along with all your Dow experience. A good (and unfortunately now late) friend of mine did some of the instrumentation work for Dow when they were working to convert the nuclear plant to a Co-gen natural gas one.
>
> The big wind subsidy up for debate right now, is something called a PTC (production tax credit) which essentially pays wind companies to make electric power that is often more expensive than existing capacity. Many states, including mine, also have RES (renewable energy standards) which just requires electric companies to use wind, solar, bio and such for a percentage of their power. And at the levels they are set at, wind is about the only thing that scales enough to make a difference. This is why some companies are either willing or required to buy wind power from independents. A former co-worker of mine runs renewable energy for DTE (formerly Detroit Edison) and she says, we wouldn't mind it so much if they hadn't lost so much demand that they don't need any more base capacity for 20 years or more.
>
> I mostly researched it from a career change standpoint, but started to lose interest when I found out most of the people making money there were lawyers or financiers. (Nothing wrong with either of those, just not what I do.) Then, around the end of '09 my Dow friend died unexpectedly of pancreatic cancer, and I decided I needed more time a lot worse than I needed more money.
>
> Maybe we can go on an impromptu windmill tour at Amana colonies next year and compare notes with drinks afterwards. There's bound to be some nearby. The newest utility ones are amazing, at 3 megawatts apiece, closing in on 300' diameter blades, and 200' + tower heights. Power goes up with the 3rd power of diameter, so there is huge pressure to go big.
> --
> Craig Lechowicz
> '77 Kingsley, Waterford, MI
> _______________________________________________
> GMCnet mailing list
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149587 is a reply to message #149547] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 20:29 |
 |
Matt Colie
Messages: 8547
Registered: March 2007
Location: S.E. Michigan
Karma: 7
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Senior Member |
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| Dolph Santorine wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 11:08 |
A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
Thanks for the collective wisdom.
Dolph
|
Dolph,
If I were you, I would be very sure I understood the business plan. As I understand this whole thing, there are few wind farms that are going to be profitable in the long term. Location is a key issue. Another big issue (largely resolved) is that many of the early turbines had massive reliability issues.
As Craig was saying, these things count heavily of government subsidies and rules that force the utilities to make business deals that are disadvantageous to stupid. But Hey, if they have a plan to get some of my (and your) money from the government for looking "green", maybe you should consider it.
You do know that Ontario Hydro has assembled a massive wind farm along the Erie shoreline. The data from that should be public by now. That could tell an investor a lot more than I know.
I kind of hate to play this card here, but I have been a sailor all my life. I kind of think that I know more than most people about wind power. I would be skeptical.
Wind power for utilities makes as much sense as adding alcohol to motorfuel
Disclaimer: I am still a little bitter that the Chicago Carbon Market collapsed under the wreckage of the East Anglia Anthropogenic Climate Change fraud and scandal. I had hoped to make money selling the credits from my Michigan land holdings. That is about all Michigan land was good for and now that is gone.
Whatever Dolph, please remember us when you are rich.
Matt Colie
Matt & Mary Colie - Chaumière -'73 Glacier 23 - Members GMCMI, GMCGL, GMCES
Electronically Controlled Quiet Engine Cooling Fan with OE Rear Drum Brakes with Applied Control Arms
SE Michigan - Near DTW - Twixt A2 and Detroit
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149589 is a reply to message #149587] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 20:48 |
k2gkk
Messages: 4452
Registered: November 2009
Karma: -8
|
Senior Member |
|
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As Matt Colie and others have stated in so many words, there is a
WHOLE LOT of crap floating around in this windpower game.
Do NOT trust ANY government to keep its word on anything or to
demonstrate a lick of sense in anything that it does. Remember
what the Great White Father and his minions have done to the
native tribes over the centuries. And ponder what EVER gave us
any reason to believe that those same folks would not do the
same to US ? !
In addition to some other problems that have been mentioned already,
the distribution of all this "free" electrical power is being stymied
by lots of people whose land the big power companies are trying to
get by condemnation through emininent domain proceedings. Believe me,
the general population is getting more riled at government bullying
as each day goes by. The farmers and ranchers in northwestern Oklahoma
are vigorously fighting the high voltage lines and accompanying tower
structures that would be needed to bring the turbine power from the
high constant wind areas out on the high plains to distribution points
that have not been thought out, let alone set up either.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~~ ~ D C "Mac" Macdonald ~ ~~
~ ~ Amateur Radio - K2GKK ~ ~
~ ~ USAF and FAA, Retired ~ ~
~ ~ ~ Oklahoma City, OK ~ ~ ~
~~ ~ ~ "The Money Pit" ~ ~ ~~
~ ~ ~ ex-Palm Beach, 76 ~ ~ ~
~ www.gmcmhphotos.com/okclb ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
> To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
> From: matt7323tze@gmail.com
> Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2011 20:29:52 -0600
> Subject: Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
>
>
>
> Dolph Santorine wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 11:08
> > A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
> >
> > I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
> >
> > I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
> >
> > This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
> >
> > I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
> >
> > I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
> >
> > So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
> >
> > Thanks for the collective wisdom.
> >
> > Dolph
>
>
>
> Dolph,
>
> If I were you, I would be very sure I understood the business plan. As I understand this whole thing, there are few wind farms that are going to be profitable in the long term. Location is a key issue. Another big issue (largely resolved) is that many of the early turbines had massive reliability issues.
>
> As Craig was saying, these things count heavily of government subsidies and rules that force the utilities to make business deals that are disadvantageous to stupid. But Hey, if they have a plan to get some of my (and your) money from the government for looking "green", maybe you should consider it.
>
> You do know that Ontario Hydro has assembled a massive wind farm along the Erie shoreline. The data from that should be public by now. That could tell an investor a lot more than I know.
>
> I kind of hate to play this card here, but I have been a sailor all my life. I kind of think that I know more than most people about wind power. I would be skeptical.
>
> Wind power for utilities makes as much sense as adding alcohol to motorfuel
>
> Disclaimer: I am still a little bitter that the Chicago Carbon Market collapsed under the wreckage of the East Anglia Anthropogenic Climate Change fraud and scandal. I had hoped to make money selling the credits from my Michigan land holdings. That is about all Michigan land was good for and now that is gone.
>
> Whatever Dolph, please remember us when you are rich.
>
> Matt Colie
> --
> Matt & Mary Colie
> '73 Glacier 23 Chaumière (say show-me-air) Just about as stock as you will find
> SE Michigan - Twixt A2 and Detroit
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149591 is a reply to message #149587] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 20:51 |
Dolph Santorine
Messages: 1236
Registered: April 2011
Location: Wheeling, WV
Karma: -41
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Matt:
Thanks for the input and for the concern.
I do about 10 deals per year. I read at least a business plan per day. Every day.
Some awful. Some meh. Some spectacular.
On a bad year, I have a Babe Ruth batting average (about .300)
On a good year, Ted Williams (.400)
In a bad year, I'm discontinuing funding on 7 deals, one turns out to be "land of the living dead", and the other two need to pay for the other 8.
I generally stick to Mobile, High School Sports and Advertising Supported sites. Things that I'm at least fairly knowledgeable about.
I've been out of my zone three times. Lost it completely twice. Like take the money to the fire pit and light it bad. Doing nicely the third time out.
This one came from some of the other folks with MobileCause.com I have huge respect for them. Of course, my first concern is lemming.
Hopefully, I'm not one.
I'm only explaining what I do because it's unusual. Actually, it's weird.
Thank you all for your input. It's hugely helpful (and scaring me back into my corner... or is that under my rock?).
Dolph
On Nov 13, 2011, at 9:29 PM, Matt Colie wrote:
>
>
> Dolph Santorine wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 11:08
>> A project for "small" (196 ft high... no tower lighting) Windpower just hit my desk.
>>
>> I have an opportunity to invest in the company at a very attractive valuation.
>>
>> I've known one of the principals for a few years, and am positively impressed.
>>
>> This is NOT my area of expertise, so I'm looking everywhere to assemble some knowledge.
>>
>> I "get" and "grok in fullness" all of the manufacturing challenges. What I don't get is the economic model (especially the forced energy buy back).
>>
>> I'm so impressed with the management team that I'm willing to climb the learning curve on this technology (I have done this exactly once in the past five years, and it was a winner).
>>
>> So, any help would be appreciated, and rewarded (if I do the deal).
>>
>> Thanks for the collective wisdom.
>>
>> Dolph
>
> Dolph,
>
> If I were you, I would be very sure I understood the business plan. As I understand this whole thing, there are few wind farms that are going to be profitable in the long term. Location is a key issue. Another big issue (largely resolved) is that many of the early turbines had massive reliability issues.
>
> As Craig was saying, these things count heavily of government subsidies and rules that force the utilities to make business deals that are disadvantageous to stupid. But Hey, if they have a plan to get some of my (and your) money from the government for looking "green", maybe you should consider it.
>
> You do know that Ontario Hydro has assembled a massive wind farm along the Erie shoreline. The data from that should be public by now. That could tell an investor a lot more than I know.
>
> I kind of hate to play this card here, but I have been a sailor all my life. I kind of think that I know more than most people about wind power. I would be skeptical.
>
> Wind power for utilities makes as much sense as adding alcohol to motorfuel
>
> Disclaimer: I am still a little bitter that the Chicago Carbon Market collapsed under the wreckage of the East Anglia Anthropogenic Climate Change fraud and scandal. I had hoped to make money selling the credits from my Michigan land holdings. That is about all Michigan land was good for and now that is gone.
>
> Whatever Dolph, please remember us when you are rich.
>
> Matt Colie
> --
> Matt & Mary Colie
> '73 Glacier 23 Chaumière (say show-me-air) Just about as stock as you will find
> SE Michigan - Twixt A2 and Detroit
> _______________________________________________
> GMCnet mailing list
> Unsubscribe or Change List Options:
> http://temp.gmcnet.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/gmclist
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149595 is a reply to message #149592] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 21:29 |
James Hupy
Messages: 6806
Registered: May 2010
Karma: -62
|
Senior Member |
|
|
I have a complete layman's perspective on this subject. When I arrived at
Palm Desert to attend GMCWS Rally it was after dark, and I was eyes on the
road looking for off ramp numbers. The wind was kicking up some, and I
noticed a huge number of red strobe lights strung out for miles on both
sides of the freeway. Those red strobes were all flashing at the same time,
not like runway strobes that flash in sequence. I thought that was peculiar
but with traffic and darkness and 12 hours behind the wheel, I didn't give
it too much thought. When we left Palm Desert, it was morning and there was
a bitch of a quartering crosswind that made driving a large slab sided
vehicle interesting. When we approached the southern end of the valley, I
could see what those strobes were on. Hundreds upon hundreds of wind
turbines, almost all of which were in operation. I wish that I had a video
camera with me as it was quite an impressive sight. Some very large Dollars
made that happen, must have been some very large barrels full of benjamins
to finance that operation. It made the wind farm on the Tehachapi pass look
tiny in comparison. There surely must be some profit in some of those
projects or they would not be there. It is your money Dolph, don't play
with more than you can afford to part with, and good luck.
On Sun, Nov 13, 2011 at 6:56 PM, D C *Mac* Macdonald <k2gkk@hotmail.com>wrote:
>
> And the Kennedys and their ilk are having a big hissy fit over
> wind turbines proposed for the waters around Cape Cod!
>
> The same NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) type of rejection is
> going on by the "elites" everywhere!
>
> ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
> ~~ ~ D C "Mac" Macdonald ~ ~~
> ~ ~ Amateur Radio - K2GKK ~ ~
> ~ ~ USAF and FAA, Retired ~ ~
> ~ ~ ~ Oklahoma City, OK ~ ~ ~
> ~~ ~ ~ "The Money Pit" ~ ~ ~~
> ~ ~ ~ ex-Palm Beach, 76 ~ ~ ~
> ~ www.gmcmhphotos.com/okclb ~
> ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
>
>
>
>
>
> > To: gmclist@temp.gmcnet.org
> > From: dennisfsexton@aol.com
> > Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2011 20:53:35 -0600
> > Subject: Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background
> >
> >
> >
> > Dolph,
> >
> > For another potential issue -- google "windmill bird kills"
> > The "environmental friendly" windmill may be coming under greater attack.
> >
> > Dennis
> > --
> > Dennis S
> > 73 Painted Desert 230
> > Germantown, TN
>
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149601 is a reply to message #149598] |
Sun, 13 November 2011 22:28 |
Dolph Santorine
Messages: 1236
Registered: April 2011
Location: Wheeling, WV
Karma: -41
|
Senior Member |
|
|
You know that once upon a time Michiana, but especially Elkhart had more millionaires per capita (courtesy of the RV business) than anywhere else in the county.
It comes and goes.
But we are all rich, aren't we?
Dolph
On Nov 13, 2011, at 11:16 PM, Dennis Sexton wrote:
>
>
> Mike Miller wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 22:00
>> Matt Colie wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 18:29
>>> ...
>>> Whatever Dolph, please remember us when you are rich.
>>
>>
>> When he is rich, Dolph will be putting the GMC motorhome back into production.
>>
>> Then he wont be... rich that is. :roll:
>
>
> Mike,
>
> When you think about it we are all rich -- rich in GMC friendships --
>
> oh, and collectively, we can produce a lot of windpower :d
>
> Dennis
> --
> Dennis S
> 73 Painted Desert 230
> Germantown, TN
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| Re: [GMCnet] OFF TOPIC - Windpower background [message #149611 is a reply to message #149598] |
Mon, 14 November 2011 03:25 |
Ken Burton
Messages: 10030
Registered: January 2004
Location: Hebron, Indiana
Karma: 10
|
Senior Member |
|
|
| Dennis S wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 22:16 |
| Mike Miller wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 22:00 |
| Matt Colie wrote on Sun, 13 November 2011 18:29 |
...
Whatever Dolph, please remember us when you are rich.
|
When he is rich, Dolph will be putting the GMC motorhome back into production.
Then he wont be... rich that is. 
|
Mike,
When you think about it we are all rich -- rich in GMC friendships --
oh, and collectively, we can produce a lot of windpower 
Dennis
|
Keep in mind most power generation and distribution is regulated by the individual states, not the feds. The feds stick their nose in to the mix occasionally, primarily to hand out money and to influence the industry. What is true in one location (rules and subsidies) probably does not apply in a different state and here is different areas of the state.
We have several fairly huge wind farms about 40 miles south of me. They were primarily built because of federal subsidies. I have heard their ROI is 5 years under the current subsidy. I think there are now around 500 units on line there right now. I have driven through those farms on many occasions when no blades were turning at all. After construction and they get on line the subsidies are still there. I read somewhere that they are paid 2.5 cent per kwh by the feds for every kwh generated. That could change at any moment. I think it is a risky business unless you understand it thoroughly and can get your money back in a very short term. The rules many change very quickly.
When you look at the buy back provision here for the small guy everything changes. The power company is only required to buy a very small total amount of power from individuals and these individuals supplying power can it can only be single family homes and schools. The power companies sell power to these homes and schools at retail and buy back the excess at wholesale rates under a plan called "Net Metering". I have a friend that work as a operator at one of the coal fired power plants (6 generators). He said that they get so little power back from these random sites individual sites that they do not even bother to take them into consideration when calculating how much power to bring on line at any given time. It is just a rounding error to them. As of last year only 21 customers had signed up for "Net Metering" and they are limited to 10kw each (nothing) under the current plan. There was a state Utilities commission proposal in 2010 to raise the individual limit to 100 kw with a grand total of 30 megawatt purchased for the entire utility company. That plan never went through.
My point of all of this is there are many, many variables and you need to understand them in the market area you wish to target with your products.
The flashing lights on wind farms are an interesting thing. The first time I saw them I was flying back home at a fairly low altitude (6,000 feet or less) late one very clear night. I could not figure out what I was seeing. I was flying directly at it and the width on the horizon kept getting wider and wider and wider. When I finally got to the lights after 25 minutes or so I realized it was a many mile wide wind farm.
I have never seen anything on this by the FAA but I assume that the concurrent flashing at multiple close together sites is some kind of rule to tell pilots that this is a wind farm and that the lights are NOT on top of the obstruction as normally required.
Ken Burton - N9KB
76 Palm Beach
Hebron, Indiana
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